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The Myth of Commodity Supercycles: How Linear Thinking Leads to Trading Losses
The Myth of Commodity Supercycles: How Linear Thinking Leads to Trading Losses
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BTCCSquare news:
Commodity traders chasing the illusion of predictable 'supercycles' are setting themselves up for failure. The seductive narrative of sustained price rallies masks the chaotic, non-linear reality of raw materials markets.
Market psychology plays a dangerous role. The human craving for certainty transforms theoretical supercycles into self-defeating prophecies. When geopolitical shocks or demand collapses inevitably disrupt these artificial projections, the fallout proves particularly severe for linear thinkers.
True price drivers—from supply chain fractures to energy transitions—rarely follow textbook trajectories. The most successful traders now employ scenario planning that embraces volatility rather than denying it.
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